Become a Mentor Donate

The new ONS data shows why this matters now.

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) release lands with a familiar punch in the stomach: we are edging back towards a number nobody wants to see.

For October to December 2025, the ONS estimates that 957,000 people aged 16 to 24 in the UK were Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET). That is 12.8% of young people. It is also up from 946,000 in the previous quarter. 

This is not a sudden cliff edge. It is a nudge. But it is a nudge in the wrong direction, and it comes with a warning label about what is driving it.

The headline hides the real shift

If you only read the top line, you might assume the rise is about more young people “dropping out”.

The detail points somewhere else.

ONS breaks NEET into two groups: those who are unemployed (they want a job and are looking) and those who are economically inactive (not currently looking, for many possible reasons).

In Oct–Dec 2025:

  • Unemployed NEET young people: 411,000, up 45,000 on the quarter
  • Economically inactive NEET young people: 547,000, down 34,000 on the quarter  

So the story is not just “more NEET”. The story is more young people actively trying to work, but not finding work. That is exactly the kind of change you would expect when the entry-level jobs market tightens.

“Close to a million” is not just a scary milestone

When NEET gets close to a million, it becomes a social and economic pressure point.

It usually means more young people are stuck in a loop where:

  • they cannot get experience without a job
  • they cannot get a job without experience
  • and support often arrives late, generic, or conditional on jumping through hoops

Some analysis of the same period puts the wider youth jobs picture in a bleak light. Reports based on this data describe 16.1% youth unemployment as job competition stiffens for 16–24 year olds. 

What this means for England, specifically

The ONS NEET bulletin is UK-wide, and ONS is explicit that it does not publish subnational NEET estimates in this release. 

So we cannot quote an official “England NEET count” from this ONS bulletin.

But England is the majority of the UK’s 16–24 population, so when the UK total rises and the rise is driven by unemployment, it is a strong signal that England will be feeling the same drag from a weaker entry-level labour market. That matters because England’s own published NEET measures (often via the Department for Education) tend to move with the same underlying forces: vacancies, wages, employer costs, health barriers, and local opportunity.

Who is driving the increase

One detail worth noticing: ONS reports that the quarterly increase was largely caused by young women (up 13,000), while young men fell by 2,000. 

That does not tell us the “why” by itself, but it does tell us where to look. Sector changes, caring responsibilities, and part-time job availability can all show up differently by sex, especially when the labour market is shifting.

If the problem is the jobs market, the response has to match

When the rise is being driven by unemployment, the fix is not a motivational poster, a CV workshop, or a short course with no labour market link.

A practical response looks more like:

  • More real entry routes: paid placements, apprenticeships, and beginner roles that do not require experience
  • Help that sticks: job search support tied to actual vacancies, plus transport and childcare where that is the barrier
  • Targeted health support: because for many young people, the line between “inactive” and “unable to sustain work without support” is thin
  • Local tailoring: what works in one town will not work in another because vacancies, travel and employers vary

The Resolution Foundation has also pushed for action on youth labour market pressures in recent analysis of NEET and the youth jobs market. 

The cleanest Europe benchmark uses a different age band

  • UK (ONS): 12.8% NEET for ages 16–24 in Oct–Dec 2025 (957,000).  
  • EU (Eurostat): 11.0% NEET for ages 15–29 in 2024.  

Those are not like-for-like age groups, so treat this as context, not a direct ranking.

Where Europe sits on the common Eurostat measure (15–29, 2024)

Eurostat reports a wide spread across EU countries:

  • Lowest: Netherlands around 5%
  • Highest: Romania around 19%
  • EU average: 11%  

When is the next update?

The next ONS NEET release is confirmed for 28 May 2026 (9:30am). 

Between now and then, the key question is simple: does the number hover near a million, or does it tip over?